Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Alpha Metallurgical Posts Q4 Loss as Met Coal Market Weakness Persists
January 30, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent
Alpha Metallurgical Resources (NYSE: AMR) reported preliminary Q4 2025 results with a net loss of $17.3 million ($1.34 per diluted share) and Adjusted EBITDA of $28.5 million . While revenues missed expectations amid a challenging metallurgical coal market, the company's cost discipline remained impressive, with full-year costs coming in at the lower end of guidance. A November water inundation at the Rolling Thunder mine added ~$6 million in non-recurring costs .
Did Alpha Metallurgical Beat Earnings?
Values retrieved from S&P Global
The quarter delivered a mixed result. Revenue missed consensus by 3.1% as metallurgical coal prices remained depressed through most of the quarter. However, Alpha beat on both EPS (smaller loss than expected) and EBITDA, reflecting the company's continued focus on cost containment.
Key Operational Metrics:
Cost per ton increased sequentially due to the Rolling Thunder incident, but remained within the full-year guidance range of $101-$107/ton established in Q2.
Ask Fintool AI AgentWhat Drove the Revenue Miss?
CEO Andy Eidson attributed the shortfall to timing dynamics in the met coal market :
"Our preliminary results for the fourth quarter reflect the challenging met coal market environment that persisted through the majority of 2025. While the low-vol met coal indexes improved in the fourth quarter, the majority of that improvement did not occur until December. Due to the late quarter timing of the pricing improvements, most of the related benefit was pushed into Q1 of 2026."
Pricing Mix (Q4 2025):
Domestic sales commanded a significant premium ($148.93/ton vs ~$107-$115 for export), highlighting the value of Alpha's North American customer relationships.
What Changed From Last Quarter?
The Good:
- Met coal indexes began recovering in December, with benefits flowing into Q1 2026
- Full-year cost performance came in at the lower end of guidance
- Share repurchases resumed: ~$20M for 113,000 shares in Q4
- Strong liquidity position: $524.3M total
The Challenging:
- Rolling Thunder mine water inundation added $6M in non-recurring costs
- US East Coast high-vol indexes down slightly vs Q3
- Revenue declined 27% YoY (Q4 2024: $615M vs Q4 2025: $519M)
Historical Financial Performance
Revenue has declined 40% from Q1 2024 peaks as met coal prices weakened globally. The company swung from profitability to losses starting in Q4 2024.
How Did the Stock React?
The stock initially dipped ~1.6% in after-hours trading on the preliminary results. AMR shares had rallied significantly in January 2026, rising from ~$200 to a peak of ~$250 before pulling back.
Recent Price Context:
- Stock up 123% from 52-week low of $97.41
- Trading at ~$221, down 13% from 52-week high of $253.82
- January rally likely priced in met coal price improvements
Ask Fintool AI AgentBalance Sheet and Capital Allocation
Alpha maintains a fortress balance sheet with minimal debt and substantial liquidity :
Share Repurchase Program:
- Total authorized: $1.5 billion
- Repurchased to date: ~6.9M shares at ~$1.1B cost
- Q4 2025 repurchases: ~$20M for ~113,000 shares
The company resumed buybacks in Q4 after pausing in Q1 2025 due to market softness .
What's Next? Forward Catalysts
Near-Term:
- Final Q4/FY 2025 Results — February 27, 2026
- 2026 Guidance — Expected after domestic contract negotiations conclude
- Q1 2026 Pricing Benefit — December met coal price improvements should flow through
Longer-Term:
- Kingston Wildcat Mine — Low-vol mine expected to ramp to 1M tons/year run rate in 2026
- 45X Tax Credit — Met coal designated as critical mineral; company estimates $30-50M annual cash benefit starting 2026
- Global Steel Demand — Demand recovery, particularly in Europe and India, could lift met coal prices
Key Risks to Monitor
- Met Coal Price Volatility — Indexes remain vulnerable to weak global steel demand and geopolitical uncertainty
- Domestic Contract Negotiations — Ongoing discussions with North American customers; outcome uncertain
- Operational Incidents — Rolling Thunder flood shows vulnerability to mine disruptions
- New Supply Competition — Management noted new supply entrants may seek market share
Ask Fintool AI AgentThe Bottom Line
Alpha Metallurgical delivered a mixed Q4 with revenue missing on soft met coal markets but solid cost execution driving beats on EPS and EBITDA. The Rolling Thunder mine incident added $6M in non-recurring costs, but the company's cost discipline kept full-year performance at the lower end of guidance. With $524M in liquidity, minimal debt, and met coal prices improving into 2026, AMR is well-positioned to weather the cycle. Key catalysts include final FY 2025 results (Feb 27), 2026 guidance, and the Kingston Wildcat mine ramp.
This analysis is based on Alpha Metallurgical Resources' preliminary Q4 2025 results filed January 30, 2026. Final audited results will be released February 27, 2026.
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